Overdue
Overdue
SpaceX AI revenue tops all its other revenue in September 2026
“The wild thing is that probably our AI revenue, not probably, definitely our AI revenue will exceed all oth…”
Missed
Starship upper stage caught toward end of 2024 (missed)
Elon Musk promised Starship upper stage caught toward end of 2024 by the end of 2024. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
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“if we get lucky, we might catch the ship towards the end of next year”
— Elon Musk · Oct 5, 2023 · International Astronautical Congress (October 5, 2023), video, ~00:04:26 00:04:26 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:04:26 — INTERNATIONAL ASTRONAUTICAL CONGRESS (OCTOBER 5, 2023), VIDEO, ~00:04:26
What actually happened
SpaceX caught Super Heavy boosters from October 2024 onward, but no Starship upper stage was caught in 2024. Wikipedia: List of Starship launches ↗
The Progression
Oct 5, 2023
The promise: “if we get lucky, we might catch the ship towards the end of next year” · International Astronautical Congress (October 5, 2023), video, ~00:04:26 00:04:26 ↗
Dec 31, 2024
Deadline passed. SpaceX caught Super Heavy boosters from October 2024 onward, but no Starship upper stage was caught in 2024. Wikipedia: List of Starship launches ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 650 days past due. Never happened.
At the International Astronautical Congress in October 2023 Elon Musk said SpaceX might catch the Starship upper stage toward the end of 2024 if it got lucky. No ship catch happened in 2024.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [VIDEO] International Astronautical Congress (October 5, 2023), video, ~00:04:26 @ 00:04:26
- [TRANSCRIPT] International Astronautical Congress (October 5, 2023) — Elon Musk Archive transcript @ 00:04:26
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship Flight 15 datePending
- Starship orbital refueling: demo promised by end of 2026Pending
- How many Starships in 2026? Elon says ~10 morePending
- Starship ship catch by the tower: moved 2 times so farPending
- SpaceX demonstrates full Starship reusability in 2026 (stillPending
- Starship reflight: first reused ship by Mar 31, 2027?Pending
- Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (byPending
- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence inPending
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Pending
Starship Flight 15 launches a little before Thanksgiving 2026
“So we don't know the exact launch date, but probably about four weeks or so. Four to six weeks is about rig…”
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
Pending
Pending
SpaceX Fable/GPT-6-level model in 2–3 months
“I am cautiously optimistic that SpaceX will have a Fable/GPT-6 level model in 2 to 3 months”
← First Giga Berlin deliveries in December 2021
Falcon 9 first stage lands intact within a year (said Nov 2015) →
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