Overdue
Overdue
SpaceX AI revenue tops all its other revenue in September 2026
“The wild thing is that probably our AI revenue, not probably, definitely our AI revenue will exceed all oth…”
Missed
Falcon 1 maiden launch as early as December 2003 (missed)
Elon Musk promised Falcon 1 maiden launch as early as December 2003 by the end of 2003. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
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“Musk says SpaceX's Falcon rocket could take off as early as December”
— Elon Musk · Apr 22, 2003 · Entrepreneur Tries His Midas Touch in Space (Los Angeles Times, Josh Friedman, Apr 22 2003) ↗
What actually happened
Falcon 1 first launched on March 24, 2006, from Kwajalein, and the flight failed. It was more than two years after the December 2003 target. Wikipedia: Falcon 1 (first launch Mar 24, 2006) ↗
The Progression
Apr 22, 2003
The promise: “Musk says SpaceX's Falcon rocket could take off as early as December” · Entrepreneur Tries His Midas Touch in Space (Los Angeles Times, Josh Friedman, Apr 22 2003) ↗
Dec 31, 2003
Deadline passed. Falcon 1 first launched on March 24, 2006, from Kwajalein, and the flight failed. It was more than two years after the December 2003 target. Wikipedia: Falcon 1 (first launch Mar 24, 2006) ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 8,321 days past due. Never happened.
In April 2003, months after founding SpaceX, Elon Musk told the LA Times the Falcon rocket could take off as early as December 2003. It first flew in March 2006.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [REPORT] Entrepreneur Tries His Midas Touch in Space (Los Angeles Times, Josh Friedman, Apr 22 2003)
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship Flight 15 datePending
- Starship orbital refueling: demo promised by end of 2026Pending
- How many Starships in 2026? Elon says ~10 morePending
- Starship ship catch by the tower: moved 2 times so farPending
- SpaceX demonstrates full Starship reusability in 2026 (stillPending
- Starship reflight: first reused ship by Mar 31, 2027?Pending
- Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (byPending
- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence inPending
Read next
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
OverdueAlso SpaceX, resolves soonest
Pending
Pending
Starship Flight 15 launches a little before Thanksgiving 2026
“So we don't know the exact launch date, but probably about four weeks or so. Four to six weeks is about rig…”
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
Pending
Pending
SpaceX Fable/GPT-6-level model in 2–3 months
“I am cautiously optimistic that SpaceX will have a Fable/GPT-6 level model in 2 to 3 months”
← Falcon 9 Block 5 first flight 6–8 months after Oct 2016 (by mid-2017)
Falcon 1 reaches orbit within one to three more tries (after the third failure) →
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