Pending
Pending
First crewed Mars mission ~12 people
“First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the…”
Missed
Falcon 9 Block 5 first flight 6–8 months after Oct 2016 (by
Elon Musk promised Falcon 9 Block 5 first flight 6–8 months after Oct 2016 (by mid-2017) by Jun 30, 2017. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
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“Block 5 starts production in about 3 months and initial flight is in 6 to 8 months”
What actually happened
The first Falcon 9 Block 5 launched Bangabandhu-1 on May 11, 2018, about 18 months after the AMA. Wikipedia: Falcon 9 Block 5 (first flight May 11, 2018) ↗
The Progression
Oct 23, 2016
The promise: “Block 5 starts production in about 3 months and initial flight is in 6 to 8 months” · Reddit AMA: ask me anything about becoming a spacefaring civ (r/spacex, Oct 23 2016): Reddit comment by u/ElonMuskOfficial (2016-10-23 23:14 UTC) ↗
Jun 30, 2017
Deadline passed. The first Falcon 9 Block 5 launched Bangabandhu-1 on May 11, 2018, about 18 months after the AMA. Wikipedia: Falcon 9 Block 5 (first flight May 11, 2018) ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 3,391 days past due. Never happened.
In his October 2016 Reddit AMA Elon Musk said Falcon 9 Block 5 would start production in about three months and fly in six to eight months. It first flew in May 2018.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship Flight 15 datePending
- Starship orbital refueling: demo promised by end of 2026Pending
- How many Starships in 2026? Elon says ~10 morePending
- Starship ship catch by the tower: moved 2 times so farPending
- SpaceX demonstrates full Starship reusability in 2026 (stillPending
- Starship reflight: first reused ship by Mar 31, 2027?Pending
- Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (byPending
- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence inPending
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