AI illustration: 80-90% odds the tower catches a Super Heavy booster in 2024
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80-90% odds the tower catches a Super Heavy booster in 2024

Elon Musk promised 80-90% odds the tower catches a Super Heavy booster in 2024 by the end of 2024. It happened on time.

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“But I think the odds of actually catching the booster with the tower probably like 80, 90% this year, which is insane.”
— Elon Musk · Apr 4, 2024 · Making Life Multiplanetary (April 4, 2024), video, ~00:11:30 00:11:30 ↗
Video: Making Life Multiplanetary (April 4, 2024), video, ~00:11:30
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:11:30 — MAKING LIFE MULTIPLANETARY (APRIL 4, 2024), VIDEO, ~00:11:30
What actually happened

The launch tower's arms caught the Super Heavy booster on Flight 5, Oct 13 2024. Wikipedia: Starship Flight 5 (booster catch Oct 13 2024) ↗

The Progression

Apr 4, 2024
The promise: “But I think the odds of actually catching the booster with the tower probably like 80, 90% this year, which is insane.” · Making Life Multiplanetary (April 4, 2024), video, ~00:11:30 00:11:30 ↗
Oct 13, 2024
Delivered — on time. The launch tower's arms caught the Super Heavy booster on Flight 5, Oct 13 2024. Wikipedia: Starship Flight 5 (booster catch Oct 13 2024) ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Delivered · on time. It happened.

In an April 2024 Starbase talk Elon Musk put the odds of catching a Super Heavy booster with the tower that year at 80-90%. It was caught on October 13.

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LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12

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