Delivered
Delivered
80-90% odds the tower catches a Super Heavy booster in 2024
“But I think the odds of actually catching the booster with the tower probably like 80, 90% this year, which…”
Elon Musk promised Starship ship reused in 2025 by the end of 2025. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
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“So my guess is probably next year is when we will be able to reuse Starship.”
— Elon Musk · Apr 4, 2024 · Making Life Multiplanetary (April 4, 2024), video, ~00:23:02 00:23:02 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:23:02 — MAKING LIFE MULTIPLANETARY (APRIL 4, 2024), VIDEO, ~00:23:02
What actually happened
No Starship upper stage was recovered or reflown in 2025. The first ship catch is still pending in late 2026 (#237). Wikipedia: List of Starship launches (2025) ↗
The Progression
Apr 4, 2024
The promise: “So my guess is probably next year is when we will be able to reuse Starship.” · Making Life Multiplanetary (April 4, 2024), video, ~00:23:02 00:23:02 ↗
Dec 31, 2025
Deadline passed. No Starship upper stage was recovered or reflown in 2025. The first ship catch is still pending in late 2026 (#237). Wikipedia: List of Starship launches (2025) ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 285 days past due. Never happened.
In April 2024 Elon Musk guessed that 2025 is when SpaceX would be able to reuse the Starship upper stage. No ship was recovered that year.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [VIDEO] Making Life Multiplanetary (April 4, 2024), video, ~00:23:02 @ 00:23:02
- [TRANSCRIPT] Making Life Multiplanetary, April 4, 2024 — Elon Musk Archive transcript @ 00:23:02
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship Flight 15 datePending
- Starship orbital refueling: demo promised by end of 2026Pending
- How many Starships in 2026? Elon says ~10 morePending
- Starship ship catch by the tower: moved 2 times so farPending
- SpaceX demonstrates full Starship reusability in 2026 (stillPending
- Starship reflight: first reused ship by Mar 31, 2027?Pending
- Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (byPending
- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence inPending
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← 80-90% odds the tower catches a Super Heavy booster in 2024
People back on the Moon and uncrewed Starships on Mars within five years (by 2029) →
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