PendingOrbital satellites become lowest-cost AI compute
“Satellites with localized AI compute... will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in <3 years.”
“going as fast as possible to get AI5, Tesla AI5 chip design into production and then reaching scale. That'll probably happen around the second quarter-ish of next year, hopefully. And then AI6 would hopefully follow less than a year later.”
— Elon Musk · Feb 5, 2026 · Elon Musk on the Dwarkesh Podcast (published Feb 5 2026), AI5 chip segment ~28:55 28:55 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 28:55 — ELON MUSK ON THE DWARKESH PODCAST (PUBLISHED FEB 5 2026), AI5 CHIP SEGMENT ~28:55
The fine print
Said on the Dwarkesh Podcast (with John Collison), published Feb 5 2026. 'Second quarter-ish of next year' from a Feb 2026 statement = Q2 2027. AI5 is Tesla's next-gen inference chip (successor to AI4/HW4), intended for both FSD and Optimus; he added AI6 would follow 'less than a year later.' Milestone = AI5 in production and ramping to scale, not merely taped out.
The Progression
Feb 5, 2026
The promise: “going as fast as possible to get AI5, Tesla AI5 chip design into production and then reaching scale. That'll probably happen around the second quarter-ish of next year, hopefully. And then AI6 would hopefully follow less than a year later.” · Elon Musk on the Dwarkesh Podcast (published Feb 5 2026), AI5 chip segment ~28:55 28:55 ↗
Today · Jul 15, 2026
Status: Pending · 350 days left. Still waiting.
On the Dwarkesh Podcast published February 5, 2026, Musk said Tesla is going 'pedals to the metal' to get its AI5 chip from design into production and then to scale, putting that milestone around the second quarter of 2027, with the follow-on AI6 chip less than a year after. AI5 is Tesla's in-house inference chip meant to power both Full Self-Driving and the Optimus robot. The falsifiable test is whether AI5 is in volume production by roughly Q2 2027.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-07-15More from the feed
Pending
MissedGrok 5 released before end of 2025
“Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
PendingGrok makes a watchable movie by end of 2026
“Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027.”
← US output outgrows money supply in ~3 years, then deflation
Space becomes the most economically compelling place for AI within ~30 months →
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