Missed
Missed
Robotaxis in half of US population by end of 2025
“I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end …”
Pending
~100,000 Optimus robots a month within 60 months (by
Elon Musk promised ~100,000 Optimus robots a month within 60 months (by mid-2030) by Jul 23, 2030. It hasn't happened yet, with 1,380 days left.
First Tesla? Our referral includes 3 months of FSD (Supervised) for first-time buyers.Get a Tesla →
Get an email when this verdict changes. The Daily Verdict covers every change on the board, this one included, and only goes out on days something happens.
“I'll be surprised if at the end of 5 years you know 60 months from now if we are not roughly making 100,000 Optimus robots a month”
— Elon Musk · Jul 23, 2025 · Tesla Q2 2025 earnings call (YouTube upload pLjG7a-NX7U), video, ~00:33:53 00:33:53 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:33:53 — TESLA Q2 2025 EARNINGS CALL (YOUTUBE UPLOAD PLJG7A-NX7U), VIDEO, ~00:33:53
What actually happened
Pending. In the 60 months after July 23, 2025, Tesla must reach about 100,000 Optimus robots a month (~1.2M/year). Tesla Q2 2025 earnings call ↗
The Progression
Jul 23, 2025
The promise: “I'll be surprised if at the end of 5 years you know 60 months from now if we are not roughly making 100,000 Optimus robots a month” · Tesla Q2 2025 earnings call (YouTube upload pLjG7a-NX7U), video, ~00:33:53 00:33:53 ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Pending · 1,380 days left. Still waiting.
On Tesla's Q2 2025 earnings call Elon Musk said he would be shocked if Tesla were not making about 100,000 Optimus robots a month in 60 months, by mid-2030.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12Tesla’s record
Delivered
84
47% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
94
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Optimus predictions
- Tesla Optimus release date: high volume by end of 2026?Pending
- Tesla Bot release date: 1 million-unit line by end of 2026?Pending
- Tesla Optimus factory in Texas: summer 2027? still pendingPending
- Buy a humanoid robot? Tesla's Optimus on sale by end of 2027Pending
- Optimus as a surgeon: better than humans by Jan 6, 2029?Pending
- Tesla Optimus price: Elon says $20,000–30,000Pending
- Optimus: 1 million robots a year in 5–6 years?Pending
- Optimus production ramp: 10x a year, says ElonPending
- Tesla robot price: Elon says Optimus under $20,000Pending
- Humanoid robot future: 100 million in 5 years, says ElonPending
- A billion humanoid robots in 10 years? Elon says yesPending
- Elon Musk: 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040 (still pending)Pending
Read next
Same source event
MissedSame source event
Pending
Pending
Owner cars added to robotaxi network next year (2026)
“I'd say confidently next year. I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able…”
Same source event
Missed
Missed
Unsupervised FSD for personal use by end of 2025 in certain areas
“I think it will be available for unsupervised personal use by the end of this year in certain geographies.”
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.
Discussion