Pending
Pending
SpaceX Fable/GPT-6-level model in 2–3 months
“I am cautiously optimistic that SpaceX will have a Fable/GPT-6 level model in 2 to 3 months”
Elon Musk promised About 20 Starships launching to Mars in the 2028-29 window by Jan 31, 2029. It hasn't happened yet, with 842 days left.
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“Another 20 Starships would lift off during the next transfer window in 2028 ... at least one of the Starships would carry an unspecified number of human passengers.”
— as reported (paraphrase) · May 29, 2025 · Aerospace America on Musk's May 29 2025 'Road to Making Life Multiplanetary' talk ↗
The fine print
Full sweep 2026-10-11. Quote matched against the cited transcript/report.
The Progression
May 29, 2025
The promise: “Another 20 Starships would lift off during the next transfer window in 2028 ... at least one of the Starships would carry an unspecified number of human passengers.” · Aerospace America on Musk's May 29 2025 'Road to Making Life Multiplanetary' talk ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Pending · 842 days left. Still waiting.
In his May 2025 Starbase talk Elon Musk laid out about 20 Starships to Mars in the 2028-29 window, some possibly crewed, after five uncrewed ships in 2026.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [REPORT] Aerospace America on Musk's May 29 2025 'Road to Making Life Multiplanetary' talk
- [VIDEO] Video: The Road to Making Life Multiplanetary
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
23
62% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
14
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship orbital refueling: demo promised by end of 2026Pending
- How many Starships in 2026? Elon says ~10 morePending
- Starship ship catch by the tower: moved 2 times so farPending
- Starship reflight: first reused ship by Mar 31, 2027?Pending
- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- Starship hourly flights: Elon says within 2–3 yearsPending
- Starship launches per day: Elon says 30+ by end of 2030Pending
- SpaceX Louisiana: Elon's plan for 12+ Starship towersPending
- 1 million tons to orbit a year? Elon says within ~5 yearsPending
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Pending
Pending
SpaceX completes ~10 more Starships in 2026
“roughly 10 more ships and about half that number of boosters this year”
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