Pending
Pending
SpaceX Fable/GPT-6-level model in 2–3 months
“I am cautiously optimistic that SpaceX will have a Fable/GPT-6 level model in 2 to 3 months”
Elon Musk promised The first orbital Starship stack ready for flight in a few weeks by Sep 14, 2021. It happened, but 1.6 years late.
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“First orbital stack of Starship should be ready for flight in a few weeks, pending only regulatory approval”
— Elon Musk · Aug 14, 2021 · @elonmusk, 2021-08-14 ↗
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
Show ▾
What actually happened
Musk said in August 2021 that the first orbital Starship stack would be ready to fly in a few weeks. The first integrated flight came on April 20 2023, about 20 months later. Spaceflight Now Apr 20 2023 — first Starship flight ↗
The Progression
Aug 14, 2021
The promise: “First orbital stack of Starship should be ready for flight in a few weeks, pending only regulatory approval” · @elonmusk, 2021-08-14 ↗
Apr 20, 2023
Delivered · Late — 1.6 years late. Musk said in August 2021 that the first orbital Starship stack would be ready to fly in a few weeks. The first integrated flight came on April 20 2023, about 20 months later. Spaceflight Now Apr 20 2023 — first Starship flight ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Delivered · Late · 1.6 years late. It happened — eventually.
In August 2021, after Starship was first stacked on its Super Heavy booster, Elon Musk said the stack should be ready to fly in a few weeks, pending only regulatory approval. It launched in April 2023.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-11- [TWEET] @elonmusk, 2021-08-14
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
23
62% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
14
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship orbital refueling: demo promised by end of 2026Pending
- How many Starships in 2026? Elon says ~10 morePending
- Starship ship catch by the tower: moved 2 times so farPending
- Starship reflight: first reused ship by Mar 31, 2027?Pending
- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- SpaceX: 20 Starships to Mars in 2028? (still pending)Pending
- Starship hourly flights: Elon says within 2–3 yearsPending
- Starship launches per day: Elon says 30+ by end of 2030Pending
- SpaceX Louisiana: Elon's plan for 12+ Starship towersPending
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Pending
Pending
SpaceX completes ~10 more Starships in 2026
“roughly 10 more ships and about half that number of boosters this year”
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