Pending
Pending
SpaceX Fable/GPT-6-level model in 2–3 months
“I am cautiously optimistic that SpaceX will have a Fable/GPT-6 level model in 2 to 3 months”
Elon Musk promised A Starship update presentation in two weeks or so by Aug 11, 2019. It happened, but 48 days late.
Starlink via our referral: you get a $100 credit after 2 months subscribed (US, Oct 2026 terms). Order in the tab that opens.Get Starlink →
Get an email when this verdict changes. The Daily Verdict covers every change on the board, this one included, and only goes out on days something happens.
“Now that Hopper has flown, Starship update probably in two weeks or so.”
— Elon Musk · Jul 28, 2019 · @elonmusk, 2019-07-28 ↗
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
Show ▾
What actually happened
The Starship update was held at Boca Chica on Sep 28 2019, about seven weeks after 'two weeks or so'. SpaceNews, Sep 29 2019: Musk's Starship presentation ↗
The Progression
Jul 28, 2019
The promise: “Now that Hopper has flown, Starship update probably in two weeks or so.” · @elonmusk, 2019-07-28 ↗
Sep 28, 2019
Delivered · Late — 48 days late. The Starship update was held at Boca Chica on Sep 28 2019, about seven weeks after 'two weeks or so'. SpaceNews, Sep 29 2019: Musk's Starship presentation ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Delivered · Late · 48 days late. It happened — eventually.
After the Starhopper flight in July 2019 Elon Musk said the Starship update presentation would come in about two weeks. It happened on September 28, seven weeks later.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-11- [TWEET] @elonmusk, 2019-07-28
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
23
62% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
14
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship orbital refueling: demo promised by end of 2026Pending
- How many Starships in 2026? Elon says ~10 morePending
- Starship ship catch by the tower: moved 2 times so farPending
- Starship reflight: first reused ship by Mar 31, 2027?Pending
- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- SpaceX: 20 Starships to Mars in 2028? (still pending)Pending
- Starship hourly flights: Elon says within 2–3 yearsPending
- Starship launches per day: Elon says 30+ by end of 2030Pending
- SpaceX Louisiana: Elon's plan for 12+ Starship towersPending
Read next
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
PendingAlso SpaceX, resolves soonest
PendingAlso SpaceX, resolves soonest
Pending
Pending
SpaceX completes ~10 more Starships in 2026
“roughly 10 more ships and about half that number of boosters this year”
← Cuphead arrives in Tesla Arcade in August 2019
Starship Mk1 flies to ~20 km in one to two months (2019) →
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.
Discussion