AI illustration: Half of all new cars fully autonomous in 7-8 years (by 2022)
TeslaSelf-Driving
Missed

Half of all new cars fully autonomous in 7-8 years (by 2022)

Elon Musk promised Half of all new cars fully autonomous in 7-8 years (by 2022) by May 16, 2022. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.

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“Probably, I guess, I don't know, seven or eight years from now, half of all cars produced will be fully autonomous.”
— Elon Musk · May 16, 2014 · World Energy Innovation Forum (May 16, 2014), video, ~00:16:58 00:16:58 ↗
Video: World Energy Innovation Forum (May 16, 2014), video, ~00:16:58
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:16:58 — WORLD ENERGY INNOVATION FORUM (MAY 16, 2014), VIDEO, ~00:16:58
What actually happened

By 2022 no carmaker sold a fully autonomous car to the public. Tesla's own FSD was still a supervised Level 2 system. Wikipedia: Self-driving car (levels of automation) ↗

The Progression

May 16, 2014
The promise: “Probably, I guess, I don't know, seven or eight years from now, half of all cars produced will be fully autonomous.” · World Energy Innovation Forum (May 16, 2014), video, ~00:16:58 00:16:58 ↗
May 16, 2022
Deadline passed. By 2022 no carmaker sold a fully autonomous car to the public. Tesla's own FSD was still a supervised Level 2 system. Wikipedia: Self-driving car (levels of automation) ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 1,610 days past due. Never happened.

At the World Energy Innovation Forum in May 2014 Elon Musk said that in seven or eight years half of all cars produced would be fully autonomous, and ten years 'for sure'. In 2022 none were.

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LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12

Tesla’s record

Delivered
84
47% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
94
Deadline passed, still no-show.
Still open
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