Missed
Missed
1 million robotaxis on roads by 2020
“From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'…”
Elon Musk promised Regulatory approval for driverless Tesla FSD by the end of 2020 by the end of 2020. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
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“We expect to get regulatory approval, at least in some jurisdictions, toward the end of next year.”
— Elon Musk · Apr 22, 2019 · New Atlas, Tesla Autonomy Day Apr 22 2019 quotes ↗
What actually happened
No regulator approved driverless Tesla FSD in 2020. Tesla's first driverless (no safety driver) robotaxi rides began in Austin in June 2025 under Texas rules. Wikipedia: List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles ↗
The Progression
Apr 22, 2019
The promise: “We expect to get regulatory approval, at least in some jurisdictions, toward the end of next year.” · New Atlas, Tesla Autonomy Day Apr 22 2019 quotes ↗
Dec 31, 2020
Deadline passed. No regulator approved driverless Tesla FSD in 2020. Tesla's first driverless (no safety driver) robotaxi rides began in Austin in June 2025 under Texas rules. Wikipedia: List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 2,111 days past due. Never happened.
At Autonomy Day in April 2019 Elon Musk said Tesla expected regulatory approval for self-driving in at least some jurisdictions by the end of 2020. None came that year.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12Tesla’s record
Delivered
70
53% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
63
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Full Self-Driving predictions
- FSD v15: Elon promises a full rewrite by end of 2026Pending
- How many Teslas have FSD? Elon predicts millions autonomous by 2026, still pendingPending
- Unsupervised FSD release date: hundreds of thousands by 2026? still pendingPending
- Tesla Semi self-driving: Elon says by Mar 31, 2027Pending
- Talk to Grok in FSD within ~3 monthsMissed
- FSD in Europe: supervised approval promised by Feb 2026Delivered · Late
- Tesla cross-country self-driving: promised for 2017Partial
- FSD Unsupervised: TX and CA in 2025, partly deliveredPartial
- Tesla Banish: auto-parking after drop-off, partly deliveredPartial
- FSD update: the 'step-change' Elon promised for Sep 2025Delivered · Late
- FSD v14: Elon promised 10x the parameters by Sep 2025Missed
- Tesla unsupervised FSD: promised for owners by 2025, missedMissed
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Next Tesla self-driving chip (HW4) in about two years →
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