Pending
Pending
New Tesla Roadster demo postponed to October 15, 2026
“New Tesla Roadster Unveil 10.01”
goalposts: 2026-10-01 (New Tesla Roadster Unveil 10.01) → 2026-10-15 (postponed by 2 weeks / QT Tesla Oct 15) · moved 1×
Missed
When will Tesla be fully autonomous? In 2016 Elon said under 2 years, missed
Elon Musk promised Complete autonomy in less than two years by Jun 1, 2018. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
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“I consider autonomous driving to be basically a solved problem. We're less than two years away from complete autonomy. Regulators however will take at least another year; they'll want to see billions of miles of data.”
— Elon Musk · Jun 1, 2016 · Code Conference, Jun 1 2016 (Forbes) ↗
What actually happened
Musk said at Code 2016 that Tesla was less than two years from complete autonomy. By mid-2018 Autopilot still required an attentive driver, and Tesla's FSD remains supervised. Electrek Sep 2025 — Tesla changes the meaning of 'Full Self-Driving' ↗
The Progression
Jun 1, 2016
The promise: “I consider autonomous driving to be basically a solved problem. We're less than two years away from complete autonomy. Regulators however will take at least another year; they'll want to see billions of miles of data.” · Code Conference, Jun 1 2016 (Forbes) ↗
Jun 1, 2018
Deadline passed. Musk said at Code 2016 that Tesla was less than two years from complete autonomy. By mid-2018 Autopilot still required an attentive driver, and Tesla's FSD remains supervised. Electrek Sep 2025 — Tesla changes the meaning of 'Full Self-Driving' ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 3,055 days past due. Never happened.
At the Code Conference in June 2016 Elon Musk called self-driving a basically solved problem and said Tesla was less than two years from complete autonomy, with regulators needing another year after that.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-11- [SOURCE] Code Conference, Jun 1 2016 (Forbes)
- [REPORT] Mercury News, Jun 2 2016
Tesla’s record
Delivered
70
53% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
63
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Full Self-Driving predictions
- FSD v15: Elon promises a full rewrite by end of 2026Pending
- How many Teslas have FSD? Elon predicts millions autonomous by 2026, still pendingPending
- Unsupervised FSD release date: hundreds of thousands by 2026? still pendingPending
- Tesla Semi self-driving: Elon says by Mar 31, 2027Pending
- Talk to Grok in FSD within ~3 monthsMissed
- FSD in Europe: supervised approval promised by Feb 2026Delivered · Late
- Tesla cross-country self-driving: promised for 2017Partial
- FSD Unsupervised: TX and CA in 2025, partly deliveredPartial
- Tesla Banish: auto-parking after drop-off, partly deliveredPartial
- FSD update: the 'step-change' Elon promised for Sep 2025Delivered · Late
- FSD v14: Elon promised 10x the parameters by Sep 2025Missed
- Tesla unsupervised FSD: promised for owners by 2025, missedMissed
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← Complete autonomy in approximately two years (Dec 2015)
Sleep in your Tesla and wake at your destination in ~2 years (TED 2017) →
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