/// OPEN DATA

The dataset. Free. Cite it.

Every prediction on this site — 346 of them, each cited to Elon Musk's own words (tweet, video, earnings call), scored against reality with goalpost history. Licensed CC BY 4.0: use it in articles, videos, papers, or apps, with attribution linking to twoweeks.lol.

The numbers

As of October 27, 2026, twoweeks.lol tracks 346 dated claims Elon Musk made in his own words, from 463 statements (a claim he repeated or re-dated counts once). 229 claims are resolved: 50 were delivered on time (22% of resolved), 77 delivered late, 16 only partly delivered, 75 missed and 11 cancelled. 116 claims are still pending and 1 disputed. He has moved a deadline 134 times. Among claims delivered late with a promised span of more than a month, the median took 1.9 times as long as promised; promises that never shipped are not in that number. Download the data.

Elon Musk's prediction record346 claims
463 statements · restatements and moved deadlines count once
50 on time 14%77 late 22%16 partial 5%75 missed 22%11 cancelled 3%1 disputed 0%116 still open 34%

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UPDATES DAILY · FREE WITH CREDIT LINK
JSON
Full structured dataset: quotes, dates, verdicts, goalposts, source URLs.
Claims
One row per claim, with its timeline of statements and goalpost moves. Use this for scorecards.
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Flat files for spreadsheets and notebooks.
License
CC BY 4.0
Free to use with attribution — a link to twoweeks.lol.

For AI agents and scripts

REBUILT ON EVERY UPDATE

Every claim, with its source

346 ROWS · NEWEST FIRST
SaidClaimDeadlineVerdictSource
2026-10-26Starlink Mobile's US carrier network is built out in 2 or 3 years2029-10-31PendingElon Musk on X, Oct 26 2026
2026-10-21EU-wide FSD approval by the end of Q1 20272027-03-31PendingTesla Q3 2026 earnings call…
2026-10-21Tesla makes 5 million vehicles a year by about 20302030-12-31PendingTesla Q3 2026 earnings call…
2026-10-21Tesla shows Optimus doing unscripted tasks on video within a month or two2026-12-21PendingTesla Q3 2026 earnings call…
2026-10-20SpaceX brings about 13 GW of AI compute online by the end of 20272027-12-31PendingSpaceX Q3 2026 earnings call…
2026-10-20SpaceX brings about 200,000 GB300s online every month for the rest of 20262026-12-31PendingSpaceX Q3 2026 earnings call…
2026-10-20SpaceX has a 440,000 Vera Rubin training cluster online by the end of Q2 20272027-06-30PendingSpaceX Q3 2026 earnings call…
2026-10-20SpaceX reaches $500 billion to $1 trillion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 20272027-12-31PendingSpaceX Q3 2026 earnings call…
2026-10-20Starlink has about 100 times today's bandwidth within about three years2029-10-20PendingSpaceX Q3 2026 earnings call…
2026-10-20Grok Bot reaches wide enterprise deployment within a few weeks2026-11-17PendingSpaceX Q3 2026 earnings call…
2026-10-19Elon gives one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America in 20272027-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X, Oct 19 2026
2026-10-17US economic output grows more than 50% by 2030 thanks to AI2030-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X, Oct 17 2026
2026-10-16Memory chip shortage lasts through 2027, may ease in 20282027-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X, Oct 16 2026
2026-10-14China will be making a lot of RAM in 20282028-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X, Oct 14 2026
2026-10-14SpaceX valuation exceeds $100 trillion within 10 years2036-10-14Pending@elonmusk on X, Oct 14 2026
2026-10-13AI lets solo devs ship studio-quality games by 20272027-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X, Oct 14 2026
2026-10-10Starship Flight 15 launches a little before Thanksgiving 20262026-11-25PendingElon Musk: What Comes Next for…
2026-10-02SpaceX ~90% commercial revenue in 2026; Q4 government share under 5%2026-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X, Oct 2 2026 ~1:16…
2026-09-29Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence in 20272027-12-31PendingElon Musk, Jensen Huang and Tom…
2026-09-27Starship hourly flights in 2–3 years2029-09-27Pending@elonmusk on X, Sep 27 2026…
2026-09-25Cybercab operating commercially in California by mid-20272027-06-30PendingInterview with CCTV (September…
2026-09-24SpaceX Fable/GPT-6-level model in 2–3 months2026-12-24Pending@elonmusk on X, Sep 24 2026…
2026-09-24Colossus +220k GB300 fully operational next week2026-10-04Missed@elonmusk on X, Sep 24 2026…
2026-09-22AI will beat all fields by end of 2027 or 2028 latest2028-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X, Sep 22 2026…
2026-09-21Starship to orbit with operational Starlink V3 sats in 7 days2026-09-28Delivered@elonmusk on X, Sep 21 2026…
2026-09-18AI roughly doubles US GDP growth next year to ~4%2027-12-31PendingElon Musk on X
2026-09-15Next Starship flight on September 22, 20262026-09-22Delivered · Late@elonmusk on X, Sep 15 2026…
2026-09-15Starlink V3 constellation starts deploying this month (by Sep 30, 2026)2026-09-30Delivered@elonmusk on X, Sep 15 2026…
2026-09-15TeraFab R&D line makes something useful by end of 20272028-09-30PendingAll-In Summit interview, Elon…
2026-09-13Grok 4.8 finishes training this week (by Sep 20, 2026)2026-09-20Missed@elonmusk on X, Sep 13 2026…
2026-09-09AI+robots more than double the global economy in under 10 years2036-09-08Pending@elonmusk on X, Sep 9 2026…
2026-09-03Over 30k high-paying Tesla jobs in Austin by 20282028-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X, Sep 3 2026…
2026-09-01Well over a billion humanoid robots within 10 years2036-09-01PendingANI News livestream — Elon Musk…
2026-09-01Grok 4.7 needs a few more days (by Sep 16, 2026)2026-09-16Delivered · Late@elonmusk on X, Sep 1 2026…
2026-08-31AI does any digital work at superhuman level by end of 20272027-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X, Aug 31 2026
2026-08-29In-house SpaceX turbine casting pulls nat-gas turbines forward by up to 18 months2028-02-29Pending@elonmusk on X, Aug 29 2026
2026-08-29~15GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 20272027-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X, Aug 29 2026
2026-08-27SpaceX reaches ~$3.5 trillion annual revenue around 20332033-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X, Aug 27 2026
2026-08-25Starbase Louisiana: 12+ launch towers, 30+ Starship flights a day2030-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X, Aug 25 2026
2026-08-24Space-optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 launches to orbit in Q4 20272027-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X, Aug 24 2026
2026-08-2130+ Starship launches per day in 20302030-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X, Aug 21 2026
2026-08-11SpaceX AI revenue tops all its other revenue in September 20262026-09-30Delivered · LateSpaceX Company Update (August 11…
2026-08-07Terafab will be 50× the size of the Pentagon when complete—PendingElon Musk on X (Aug 7 2026)
2026-08-04Starship flies at least once a day within a year2027-08-04PendingSpaceX Q2 2026 earnings call…
2026-08-04Starship safe enough to fly people by end of 20272027-12-31PendingSpaceX Q2 2026 earnings call…
2026-08-04SpaceX reaches $100 billion-plus ARR in December 20262026-12-31PendingSpaceX Q2 2026 earnings call…
2026-08-04About 1,000 Starlink V3 satellites in orbit around Q2 20272027-06-30PendingSpaceX Q2 2026 Earnings Call…
2026-07-30Grok 4.6 comes out in a week (by Aug 6, 2026)2026-08-06Delivered · LateElon Musk on X (Jul 30 2026)
2026-07-23AI robot singularity is 10 years away2036-07-23PendingThe Economist — Elon Musk…
2026-07-23Money won't matter by 20362036-12-31PendingThe Economist — Elon Musk…
2026-07-22Self-driving working on the Tesla Semi by end of 2026 or early 20272027-03-31PendingTesla Q2 2026 Financial Results…
2026-07-08Grok 4.5 released to the public on July 9, 20262026-07-09DeliveredElon Musk on X (Jul 8 2026)
2026-07-08First people on the Moon in less than 5 years2031-12-31PendingSean Hannity Show interview, Gov.…
2026-06-29Massive Grok gains in ~3 months from C/C++ stack rewrite2026-09-30MissedElon Musk on X, Jun 29 2026…
2026-06-28A new from-scratch AI model released every month for the rest of 20262026-12-31PendingElon Musk on X (@elonmusk), June…
2026-06-23Starlink comes to American Airlines by 20272027-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X
2026-06-18Talk to Grok in FSD within ~3 months2026-09-30MissedElon Musk on X, June 18 2026…
2026-06-17A legion of Optimus robots will form the first Von Neumann probe—Pending@elonmusk on X
2026-06-16AI reaches Stockfish-level coding and general computer use2028-03-01Pending@elonmusk on X
2026-06-14SpaceX reaches ~$1 trillion annual revenue in 20302030-12-31PendingElon Musk on X, Jun 14 2026 — 'I…
2026-06-135× more satellites than the rest of the world within ~5 years2031-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X
2026-06-101 million tons to orbit possible within ~5 years2031-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X
2026-06-081 gigawatt/year of space-based AI compute by end of 20272027-12-31PendingSpaceX Technical Talk on AI…
2026-05-25xAI open-sources the 0.5T Grok model by end of 20262026-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X
2026-05-19At least 100 million humanoid robots within 5 years2031-05-19PendingForbes — Elon Musk On The Next…
2026-05-19Global economy doubles in 5–7 years2033-05-19PendingForbes — Elon Musk On The Next…
2026-05-18SpaceX completes ~10 more Starships in 20262026-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X
2026-05-18AI drives 90% of all distance driven within about 10 years (by 2036)2036-05-31PendingSamson International Smart…
2026-04-22Robotaxi operating in a dozen or so states by end of 20262026-12-31PendingQ1 2026 earnings call quotes…
2026-04-22FSD v15 complete software overhaul by end of 20262026-12-31PendingQ1 2026 earnings call quotes…
2026-04-22Optimus V3 production starts late July/August 20262026-08-31Delivered · LateQ1 2026 earnings call quotes…
2026-04-22Second Optimus factory at Giga Texas starts production around summer 20272027-09-22PendingTesla Q1 2026 earnings call…
2026-04-22Megapack 3 production starts in Houston later in 20262026-12-31DeliveredTesla Q1 2026 earnings call…
2026-03-21Terafab: AI5 small-batch 2026, volume 2027, a terawatt of compute/year2027-12-31PendingElon Musk on X, Mar 21 2026…
2026-03-14xAI catches up to all AI leaders in 20262026-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X
2026-03-13Economy 10x bigger in 10 years2036-12-31PendingElon Musk at the 2026 Abundance…
2026-03-07First half of Cortex active by April 20262026-04-30Delivered@elonmusk on X
2026-02-21Starship's next flight (V3 debut)2025-12-31Delivered · Late@elonmusk on X
2026-02-17Grok 4.2 an order of magnitude better than Grok 42026-03-31Partial@elonmusk on X
2026-02-09Security-test and open-source all of X Chat2026-06-30Missed@elonmusk on X
2026-01-28Model S and X production ends next quarter (Q2 2026)2026-06-30DeliveredTesla Q4 2025 Earnings Call…
2026-01-28Optimus V3 unveiled within a few months (mid-2026)2026-07-31MissedTesla Q4 2025 earnings call…
2026-01-28Next-gen Neuralink implant (3X capability) ready by end of 20262026-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X
2026-01-22Selling Optimus robots to the public by end of 20272027-12-31PendingConversation with Elon Musk |…
2026-01-08Major Grok Code upgrade that one-shots complex tasks2026-02-28Partial@elonmusk on X
2026-01-06AGI will be achieved in 20262026-12-31PendingMoonshots podcast #220 transcript…
2026-01-06AI exceeds intelligence of all humans combined by 20302031-07-23PendingMoonshots podcast #220 transcript…
2026-01-06Optimus a better surgeon than the best humans in 3 years (by 2029)2029-01-06PendingMoonshots #220 — Diamandis asks…
2026-01-06Tesla Cortex 2: half a gigawatt, operational by mid-20262026-07-31PartialMoonshots #220 with Peter…
2026-01-02Grokipedia far exceeds Wikipedia in 20262026-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X
2025-12-31Neuralink high-volume production and automated surgery in 20262026-12-31PendingElon Musk on X (verified via…
2025-12-24US double-digit growth in 12-18 months, triple-digit in ~5 years2030-12-24PendingMusk X post on…
2025-12-10Starlink V3 (20kW) launched at scale by Q4 20262026-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X
2025-12-09Grok 4.20 in ~3 weeks, Grok 5 in a few months2025-12-31Partial@elonmusk on X
2025-12-07Orbital satellites become lowest-cost AI compute2029-12-31PendingMusk X post on orbital AI…
2025-12-05Open-source the entire X codebase2026-01-31Partial@elonmusk on X
2025-11-30Working will be optional in less than 20 years2045-12-31PendingPeople by WTF Ep. 16 — Elon Musk…
2025-11-30US output outgrows money supply in ~3 years, then deflation2028-12-31PendingPeople by WTF Ep. 16 — Elon Musk…
2025-11-13X Money launches soon2024-06-30Delivered · LateMusk X post on comms stack / X…
2025-11-13X becomes the everything app2026-12-31PendingMusk X post on comms stack / X…
2025-11-04AI5 chip production 2026-20272027-04-30PendingElon Musk on X, Nov 4 2025 (AI5…
2025-10-31Neuralink patients beat humans at fast-reaction games soon2026-12-31PendingMusk X post on Neuralink gaming…
2025-10-22Robotaxi in 8–10 metro areas by end of 20252025-12-31MissedTesla Q3 2025 earnings call, Oct…
2025-10-10Banish feature (auto-parking after dropoff) in near future2025-12-31PartialElon Musk on X, ~Oct 10 2025…
2025-10-06Grok makes a watchable movie by end of 20262026-12-31PendingMusk X post on Grok movies, Oct 6…
2025-10-06Great AI-generated game released by end of 20262026-12-31PendingMusk X post on xAI game studio…
2025-10-04Grokipedia v0.1 published in two weeks (Oct 2025)2025-10-18Delivered · Late@elonmusk, 2025-10-04
2025-09-22SpaceX delivers >95% of Earth's payload to orbit in 20262026-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X
2025-09-19X algorithm 'purely AI' by November 20252025-11-30Delivered · Late@elonmusk on X
2025-09-10Phones supporting Starlink's new spectrum ship in ~2 years2027-09-30PendingElon Musk at the All-In Summit…
2025-09-04Blindsight restores limited sight to the blind in 20262026-12-31PendingMusk X post on Blindsight, Sep 4…
2025-09-0180% of Tesla value will be Optimus2035-12-31PendingElon Musk on X (reply to…
2025-08-27Starship V3 built & tested by end of 20252025-12-31Delivered · Late@elonmusk on X
2025-08-23Grok 3 open-sourced in about 6 months2026-02-28Missed@elonmusk on X, Aug 23 2025
2025-08-20New Model Y variant enters US production by end of 20262026-12-31Delivered@elonmusk on X
2025-08-13Grok Imagine V2 video step-change by end of 20252025-12-31Delivered · Late@elonmusk on X
2025-08-08FSD update: step-change for rare conditions2025-09-30Delivered · Late@elonmusk on X
2025-08-07Grok 5 released before end of 20252026-12-31PendingMusk X post on Grok 5, Aug 7 2025
2025-08-06New FSD model with 10x parameters (2025)2025-09-30MissedElon Musk on X, Aug 6 2025
2025-07-23Robotaxis in half of US population by end of 20252026-12-31PendingTesla Q2 2025 earnings call…
2025-07-14'Most epic demo ever' by end of 20252025-12-31Delivered · Late@elonmusk on X, Jul 13 2025 (US…
2025-07-09Grok discovers useful new technologies no later than 20262026-12-31PendingxAI Grok 4 launch livestream (Jul…
2025-06-11Cars deliver themselves from factory2025-06-28DeliveredElon Musk on X, June 10 2025
2025-06-05Bring Dojo 2 online in 20252025-12-31Cancelled@elonmusk on X
2025-06-03SpaceX space revenue exceeds NASA's entire budget in 20262026-12-31Pending@elonmusk on X
2025-05-29First autonomous factory-to-customer delivery2025-06-30Delivered@elonmusk on X
2025-05-20Hundreds of thousands of self-driving Teslas in the US by end of 20262026-12-31PendingCNBC interview with David Faber…
2025-05-20Around 1,000 Tesla robotaxis in Austin within a few months of launch2025-12-31MissedCNBC Interview with David Faber…
2025-04-29Grok 3.5 early beta next week (May 2025)2025-05-06Missed@elonmusk on X, Apr 29 2025
2025-04-03Superhuman abilities via Neuralink2035-12-31PendingTesla All-Hands | Q1 2025…
2025-03-30First Blindsight human implant later in 20252025-12-31MissedAmerica PAC Town Hall (March 30…
2025-03-20Tesla passes 10 million cumulative vehicles in 20262026-12-31DeliveredTesla All-Hands (Q1 2025) (March…
2025-03-17Half of all miles driven are autonomous in five years (by 2030)2030-03-17PendingVerdict with Ted Cruz (March 17…
2025-02-28Recover the Starship upper stage intact in 20252025-12-31MissedElon Musk on the Joe Rogan…
2025-02-26DOGE achieves a $1 trillion deficit reduction in fiscal year 20262026-09-30MissedPresident Trump's First Cabinet…
2025-02-18SpaceX brings the two long-stay ISS astronauts home in about four weeks2025-03-18DeliveredHannity: Trump and Musk joint…
2025-01-29Optimus 10x production ramp each year2030-12-31PendingTesla Q4 2024 earnings call…
2024-10-29At least 10 billion humanoid robots by 20402040-12-31PendingFII8 transcript, Elon Musk Archive
2024-10-23Tesla vehicle sales grow 20–30% in 20252025-12-31MissedTesla Q3 2024 earnings call, Oct…
2024-10-10Unsupervised FSD in Texas and California in 2025 (We, Robot)2025-12-31Missed'We, Robot | Tesla Cybercab…
2024-10-10Cybercab in production before 2027 (We, Robot)2026-06-30Delivered'We, Robot | Tesla Cybercab…
2024-10-01Optimus 1 million units/year in 5-6 years2027-12-31PendingElon Musk | All-In Summit 2024…
2024-08-22Thousands of Neuralink implants per year by 20302030-12-31PendingMusk X post on Neuralink scaling…
2024-08-03Tesla does over $100 billion in revenue in 20242024-12-31MissedLex Fridman Podcast (August 3…
2024-08-02Neuralink implants 10 people by end of 20242024-12-31MissedLex Fridman Podcast #438, Aug 2…
2024-07-01Optimus high-volume external production 20262027-12-31PendingTesla Q2 2024 earnings call…
2024-07-01Optimus performing factory tasks 20242024-12-31PartialTesla Q2 2024 earnings call…
2024-07-01Grok 3 by end of 20242024-12-31Delivered · LateElon Musk on X, July 1 2024…
2024-07-01Grok 2 comes out in August 20242024-08-31DeliveredElon Musk on X, July 1 2024…
2024-06-15Tesla Roadster flew at the October 2026 McGregor demo2027-12-31DeliveredMusk X post, Jun 15 2024
2024-06-131,000+ Optimus robots in Tesla factories by 20252025-12-31Missed2024 Annual Shareholder Meeting…
2024-06-13Tesla worth 10× today's most valuable company2035-12-31Pending2024 Annual Shareholder Meeting…
2024-06-13Over 7 million Teslas by end of 20242024-12-31DeliveredTesla Shareholder Meeting (June…
2024-04-23Tesla sells more cars in 2024 than in 20232024-12-31MissedTesla Q1 2024 earnings call…
2024-04-05Tesla Robotaxi unveil on August 8, 20242024-08-08Delivered · LateElon Musk on X, April 5 2024…
2024-04-0480-90% odds the tower catches a Super Heavy booster in 20242024-12-31DeliveredMaking Life Multiplanetary (April…
2024-04-04Starship ship reused in 20252027-03-31PendingMaking Life Multiplanetary (April…
2024-03-25Five or six more Starship flights in 20242024-12-31MissedAbundance360 Summit (March 25…
2024-03-25Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (by March 2027)2027-03-31PendingAbundance360 Summit (March 25…
2024-03-18Starlink Mini launches later in 20242024-12-31DeliveredSpaceX Starship Update at…
2024-03-18Starship pad turnaround under 24 hours by end of 20242024-12-31MissedSpaceX Starship Update at…
2024-03-18Falcon flies as many as ~150 times in 20242024-12-31Delivered · LateSpaceX Starship Update at…
2024-03-11xAI will open source Grok 'this week' (March 2024)2024-03-17DeliveredElon Musk on X, March 11 2024…
2024-02-28Roadster 0-60 in under 1 second2027-12-31DeliveredMusk tweet, Feb 28 2024
2024-02-09Dragon takes astronauts farther than anyone in 50 years, in 20242024-12-31Delivered@elonmusk, 2024-02-09
2024-01-22Grok 1.5 out next month (February 2024)2024-02-29Delivered · Late@elonmusk, 2024-01-22
2023-11-23FSD supervised safer than human drivers2025-12-31DisputedElon Musk on X, Nov 23 2023
2023-11-21Grok available to all X Premium+ subscribers next week (Nov 2023)2023-12-02Delivered · Late@elonmusk, 2023-11-21
2023-11-12FSD v12 to customers in 'about 2 weeks' (Nov 2023)2023-11-26Delivered · LateElon Musk on X, November 12 2023…
2023-10-05Starship upper stage caught toward end of 20242026-11-30PendingInternational Astronautical…
2023-10-01Cybertruck 250,000 units/year by 20252025-12-31MissedTesla Q3 2023 Earnings Call…
2023-08-04Tesla's LA diner ready later in 20232023-12-31Delivered · Late@elonmusk, 2023-08-04
2023-07-19Tesla delivers 1.8 million cars in 20232023-12-31DeliveredTesla Q2 2023 earnings call…
2023-02-15Musk finds a new Twitter CEO around the end of 20232023-12-31DeliveredWorld Government Summit (February…
2023-02-04Starship launch attempt next month (March 2023)2023-03-31Delivered · Late@elonmusk, 2023-02-04
2023-02-03Creator ad revenue sharing 'starting today' (Feb 2023)2023-02-03Delivered · LateElon Musk on Twitter, February 3…
2023-01-25A pretty difficult recession in 20232023-12-31MissedTesla Q4 2022 earnings call…
2023-01-13Twitter publishes its recommendation code by February 20232023-02-28Delivered · Late@elonmusk, 2023-01-13
2022-12-21Twitter roughly cash-flow break-even in 20232023-12-31MissedTwitter Spaces: Twitter's…
2022-12-12Twitter offers a no-ads subscription tier in 20232023-12-31Delivered@elonmusk, 2022-12-12
2022-11-30Quadriplegics control phones faster than able-bodied by 20252025-12-31MissedNeuralink Show and Tell, Fall…
2022-11-30Restore full body functionality2030-12-31PendingNeuralink Show and Tell, Fall…
2022-11-27Twitter tops a billion monthly users in 12–18 months2024-05-27Missed@elonmusk on X, Nov 27 2022
2022-10-21Recession lasts until spring 20242024-06-20Missed@elonmusk on X, Oct 21 2022
2022-09-30Optimus under $200002030-12-31PendingTesla AI Day 2022 (official Tesla…
2022-09-30FSD Beta rolled out worldwide by end of 20222022-12-31MissedTesla AI Day (September 30…
2022-09-29Cybertruck can cross rivers, lakes, seas2023-11-30MissedMusk tweet, Sep 29 2022
2022-08-26Starlink V2 direct-to-phone launching in 20232023-12-31Delivered · LateElon Musk on X, August 26 2022…
2022-08-04Tesla exits 2022 at a 2-million-car annual run rate2022-12-31MissedTesla Shareholder Meeting (August…
2022-07-20Inflation declines toward the end of 20222022-12-31DeliveredTesla Q2 2022 earnings call…
2022-06-21Tesla headcount higher a year after the June 2022 salaried cut2023-06-21DeliveredQatar Economic Forum (June 21…
2022-04-07Optimus production ready by 20232023-12-31MissedTesla 'Cyber Rodeo' Giga Texas…
2022-03-29FSD Beta in Europe this summer (2022)2022-09-22Delivered · Late@elonmusk, 2022-03-29
2022-03-28SpaceX aims for 60 launches in 20222022-12-31Delivered@elonmusk, 2022-03-28
2022-02-10A Starship and Super Heavy every month by end of 20222022-12-31MissedSpaceX Starship Update (February…
2022-02-10Starship launch capability at Cape 39A and an ocean platform by end of 20222022-12-31MissedSpaceX Starship Update (February…
2022-02-10Starship orbital refilling demonstrated within two years (by early 2024)2026-12-31PendingSpaceX Starship Update (February…
2022-01-26New Tesla factory locations announced by end of 20222022-12-31Delivered · LateTesla Q4 2021 earnings call…
2021-10-07Model Y becomes the world's best-selling vehicle in 20232022-12-31Delivered · LateTesla Shareholder Meeting…
2021-08-19Optimus prototype by 20222022-12-31DeliveredTesla AI Day 2021 (official Tesla…
2021-08-19Dojo supercomputer operational in 20222022-12-31PartialTesla AI Day 2021 (official Tesla…
2021-08-14First orbital Starship stack ready to fly in a few weeks (Aug 2021)2021-09-14Delivered · Late@elonmusk, 2021-08-14
2021-07-26At least 50% Tesla growth in 20222022-12-31MissedTesla Q2 2021 earnings call…
2021-03-20FSD Beta V9 and the download button next month (April 2021)2021-04-30Delivered · Late@elonmusk on X, Mar 20 2021
2021-02-22Global Starlink coverage by end of 20212021-12-31Delivered · LateMusk reply tweet on Starlink…
2021-02-22Starlink speed doubles to ~300Mb/s in 20212021-12-31Missed@elonmusk on X, Feb 22 2021
2021-02-11Model S Plaid+ with ~500 miles of range in about a year2022-02-11CancelledThe Joe Rogan Experience…
2021-01-27Cybertruck volume production in 20222022-12-31Delivered · LateTesla Q4 2020 Earnings Call…
2021-01-27Giga Berlin and Giga Texas start production in 20212021-12-31Delivered · LateTesla Q4 2020 earnings call…
2020-12-20FSD subscription released early 20212021-03-31Delivered · LateElon Musk on Twitter, December 20…
2020-12-01Self-sustaining Mars city ASAP2050-12-31PendingAxel Springer Award interview…
2020-10-21FSD Beta wide release by end of 20202020-12-31Delivered · LateTesla Q3 2020 earnings call…
2020-10-02Tesla enters India in 20212021-12-31Delivered · Late@elonmusk on X, Oct 2 2020
2020-09-2220 million cars per year by 20302030-12-31PendingMusk tweet, Sep 28 2020
2020-09-22$25,000 fully autonomous Tesla in ~3 years (Battery Day)2025-12-31MissedTesla Battery Day, Sept 22 2020…
2020-09-224680 pilot plant at 10 GWh/year within a year (Battery Day)2021-09-22PartialTesla Battery Day, Sept 22 2020…
2020-09-22Tesla makes 3 TWh of batteries a year by 20302030-12-31PendingTesla Battery Day, Sep 22 2020…
2020-09-22Tesla grows 30–40% in 20202020-12-31DeliveredTesla Battery Day (September 22…
2020-05-18FSD price will keep increasing2024-12-31MissedElon Musk on X, May 18 2020
2020-04-29Model S gets a 400+ mile EPA range on retest2020-12-31DeliveredTesla Q1 2020 Earnings Call…
2020-03-19Close to zero new US COVID cases by end of April 20202020-04-30MissedElon Musk on Twitter, March 19…
2020-01-29Tesla Battery Day probably in April 20202020-04-30MissedTesla Q4 2019 Earnings Call…
2019-11-21Cybertruck starting at $39,9002021-12-31CancelledCybertruck Unveil, Nov 21 2019…
2019-11-21Cybertruck bulletproof2023-11-30DeliveredCybertruck Unveil, Nov 21 2019…
2019-11-21Cybertruck shatterproof glass2019-11-21MissedCybertruck Unveil, Nov 21 2019…
2019-11-08SpaceX building about a Raptor engine a day by 20202020-12-31Delivered · Late@elonmusk, 2019-11-08
2019-10-23FSD ‘feature complete’2020-06-30PartialTesla Q3 2019 earnings call…
2019-09-28Starship reaches orbit2022-02-28Delivered · LateSpaceX official 'Starship Update'…
2019-09-28Starship fully reusable2027-12-31PendingSpaceX 'Starship Update' (Mk1…
2019-09-28Starship Mk1 flies to ~20 km in one to two months (2019)2019-11-28MissedSpaceX Starship Update, Boca…
2019-09-17Model S Plaid in production around Oct/Nov 20202020-11-30Delivered · Late@elonmusk, 2019-09-17
2019-07-301,000 Solar Roofs a week by end of 20192021-04-29Cancelled@elonmusk on X, Jul 29 2019 (US…
2019-07-28Starship update presentation in 'two weeks or so' (July 2019)2019-08-11Delivered · Late@elonmusk, 2019-07-28
2019-07-27Cuphead arrives in Tesla Arcade in August 20192019-08-31Delivered · Late@elonmusk, 2019-07-27
2019-07-24Tesla back to profit in Q3 20192019-09-30DeliveredTesla Q2 2019 earnings call…
2019-07-212020 Hyperloop competition in a 10 km vacuum tunnel2020-12-31Missed@elonmusk, 2019-07-21
2019-07-16First human Neuralink implant2021-05-07Delivered · LateNeuralink Launch Event, Jul 16…
2019-06-13Falcon Heavy launches at the end of June 20192019-06-30DeliveredE3 Coliseum (June 13, 2019)…
2019-06-11Tesla pickup truck unveiled in summer 20192019-09-22Delivered · LateTesla 2019 Annual Shareholder…
2019-05-22Las Vegas Convention Center tunnel finished by end of 20192019-12-31Delivered · Late@elonmusk, 2019-05-22
2019-04-24Tesla insurance launches 'in about a month' (April 2019)2019-05-24Delivered · LateTesla Q1 2019 earnings call…
2019-04-221 million robotaxis on roads by 20202020-04-22MissedTesla Autonomy Day 2019 (official…
2019-04-22Autonomous robotaxis in 20202020-12-31Delivered · LateTesla Autonomy Day 2019 (official…
2019-04-22Cars with no steering wheel/pedals in 2 years (2021)2021-04-22Delivered · LateTesla Autonomy Day 2019 (official…
2019-04-22HW3 sufficient for FSD2024-12-31MissedTesla Autonomy Day, Apr 22 2019…
2019-04-22Robotaxi $30k/year income for owners2020-12-31MissedTesla Autonomy Day 2019 (official…
2019-04-22Next Tesla self-driving chip (HW4) in about two years2021-04-22Delivered · LateTesla Autonomy Day, Apr 22 2019…
2019-03-14Year of the solar roof 20192019-12-31MissedModel Y Unveil, Mar 14 2019…
2019-03-14$39,000 Standard Range Model Y in 20212021-12-31MissedTesla Model Y Unveiling (March…
2019-02-20500,000 cars in 20192019-12-31Delivered · LateMusk tweet, Feb 19 2019 (the…
2019-02-19Tesla makes 1.5 million cars in 20212021-12-31MissedARK Invest podcast with Elon Musk…
2019-01-30Tesla profitable in Q1 2019 and all quarters going forward2019-03-31MissedTesla Q4 2018 earnings call, Jan…
2019-01-30Tesla deliveries about 50% higher in 20192019-12-31DeliveredTesla Q4 2018 earnings call…
2019-01-07Shanghai Gigafactory: built by summer, cars by end of 20192019-12-31DeliveredElon Musk on Twitter, Jan 7 2019…
2018-12-26Superchargers cover 100% of Europe in 2019, Ireland to Kiev2019-12-31Missed@elonmusk, 2018-12-26
2018-11-01Advanced Summon ready in ~6 weeks (Nov 2018)2018-12-13Delivered · Late@elonmusk on X, Nov 1 2018
2018-10-22First Boring tunnel opens Dec 10, free public rides next day2018-12-19Missed@elonmusk on X, Oct 22 2018
2018-09-17Starship hopper flights in 20192019-12-31DeliveredSpaceX BFR Lunar Mission…
2018-08-02Tesla picks a European Gigafactory site before end of 20182018-12-31Delivered · LateTesla Q2 2018 Earnings Call…
2018-08-01Tesla makes half a million to a million cars in 20202020-12-31PartialTesla Q2 2018 earnings call…
2018-06-14Chicago O'Hare Loop running in 18-24 months (2018)2021-06-14CancelledBloomberg News (official channel)…
2018-06-10First full self-driving features in V9 (August 2018)2018-08-31PartialElon Musk on Twitter, June 10…
2018-06-09Roadster SpaceX package with thrusters2027-12-31DeliveredMusk tweet, Jun 9 2018 (original…
2018-06-05Model Y unveiled approximately March 20192019-03-31DeliveredTesla Shareholder Meeting (June…
2018-06-05Supercharger V3 in production around end of 20182018-12-31Delivered · LateTesla Shareholder Meeting (June…
2018-05-21$35,000 Model 3 ships 3–6 months after 5k/week2019-01-01Delivered · Late@elonmusk on X, May 21 2018
2018-04-13Tesla profitable & cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4 20182018-12-31DeliveredElon Musk on Twitter, April 13…
2018-03-11Starship short hop flights in the first half of 20192019-06-30PartialSXSW (March 11, 2018), video…
2018-02-06SpaceX recovers a fairing within six months (Feb 2018)2018-08-06MissedFalcon Heavy Post-Launch Press…
2017-12-01Falcon Heavy launches next month (January 2018)2013-12-31Delivered · Late@elonmusk, 2017-12-01
2017-11-16Tesla Semi production in 20192019-12-31Delivered · LateTesla Semi & Roadster Unveil, Nov…
2017-11-16Tesla Roadster enters production2028-12-31PendingTesla Semi & Roadster Unveil, Nov…
2017-11-16Semi 500 mile range2022-12-31DeliveredTesla Semi & Roadster Unveil…
2017-11-16Roadster 620 mile range2027-12-31CancelledTesla Semi & Roadster Unveil…
2017-11-01Tesla China factory starts production in about three years2020-11-01DeliveredTesla Q3 2017 earnings call…
2017-09-08SpaceX does about 30 launches in 20182018-12-31MissedSpaceX All-Hands Company Talk…
2017-09-08SpaceX approaches one launch every seven days by mid-20192019-07-31MissedSpaceX All-Hands Company Talk…
2017-08-02Tesla hits a 10,000-car week by end of 20182019-12-31MissedTesla Q2 2017 earnings call, Aug…
2017-07-28Three times as many Superchargers by end of 20182018-12-31MissedTesla Model 3 Handover Event…
2017-07-19A Falcon booster reflown within 24 hours by 20182018-12-31MissedISS R&D Conference (July 19…
2017-07-15More than half of new US vehicle production electric within 10 years (by 2027)2027-07-15PendingNational Governors Association…
2017-07-03Model 3 5,000/week by Dec 20172018-06-30Delivered · LateMusk tweet, Jul 2 2017
2017-06-06Solar Roof Spanish tile and French slate in production by early 20182018-03-31CancelledTesla Shareholder Meeting (June…
2017-06-06Model Y hits the roads around 20192019-12-31Delivered · LateTesla Shareholder Meeting (June…
2017-04-28Tesla announces 2-4 new Gigafactory locations later in 20172017-12-31MissedTED (April 28, 2017), video…
2017-03-10Australia's big battery in 100 days or it's free2017-12-01DeliveredElon Musk on Twitter, March 10…
2016-11-17Solar roof will cost less than a normal roof (2016)—MissedElon Musk Unveils New Solar Roof…
2016-10-23First crewed Mars mission ~12 people2029-12-31PendingElon Musk's own Reddit AMA answer…
2016-10-23Falcon 9 Block 5 first flight 6–8 months after Oct 2016 (by mid-2017)2017-06-30Delivered · LateReddit AMA: ask me anything about…
2016-10-19LA to NYC autonomous drive by end of 20172017-12-31PartialRecording of the Oct 19 2016…
2016-10-19Autopilot Hardware 2 reaches feature parity with Hardware 1 in December 20162016-12-31MissedTesla Full Self-Driving Hardware…
2016-09-271 million people on Mars2060-12-31PendingIAC 2016 keynote 'Making Humans a…
2016-07-20Tesla Semi unveiled in 2017 (Master Plan, Part Deux)2017-09-30Delivered · LateElon Musk, 'Master Plan, Part…
2016-07-20Tesla 'urban transport' bus unveiled in 20172017-12-31Delivered · LateElon Musk, 'Master Plan, Part…
2016-07-20Add your Tesla to a shared fleet with one tap (2016)2026-12-31PendingElon Musk, 'Master Plan, Part…
2016-07-20'Machine that builds the machine' v1.0 in 20182018-12-31CancelledElon Musk, 'Master Plan, Part…
2016-06-02Humans on Mars2036-01-22PendingCode Conference 2016 full…
2016-05-04100,000-200,000 Model 3s built in the second half of 20172017-12-31MissedTesla Q1 2016 earnings call…
2016-05-04Tesla builds 500,000 cars in 20182018-12-31MissedTesla Q1 2016 earnings call…
2016-05-04Tesla makes close to 1 million vehicles in 20202020-12-31MissedTesla Q1 2016 earnings call…
2016-04-27Uncrewed Mars landing 20182026-12-31CancelledElon Musk on X, Apr 27 2016…
2016-02-10Tesla GAAP-profitable in Q4 20162016-12-31MissedTesla Q4 2015 earnings call…
2016-01-10Summon your Tesla from across the country in ~2 years2018-01-10Missed@elonmusk on X, Jan 10 2016
2015-12-21Well over a dozen Falcon 9 launches in 20162016-12-31MissedPost-Landing Telecon — First…
2015-11-06Falcon 9 first stage lands intact within a year (said Nov 2015)2016-11-06DeliveredBaron Investment Conference…
2015-10-02Solar is the single largest source of electricity by mid-century2050-12-31PendingBig Think (October 2, 2015)…
2015-09-15A Tesla breaks 1,000 km of range by 20172017-12-31MissedInterview in Denmark (September…
2015-09-02Model 3 production starts in about two years (2015)2016-12-31Delivered · Late@elonmusk, 2015-09-02
2015-08-05Tesla makes half a million cars in 20202020-12-31DeliveredTesla Q2 2015 earnings call…
2015-05-06Model 3 shown in approximately March 20162016-03-31DeliveredTesla Q1 2015 earnings call…
2015-04-30$3,500 Powerwall starts shipping in 3-4 months (2015)2015-08-31PartialTesla Energy / Powerwall keynote…
2015-02-11Tesla matches Apple's $700B market cap by 20252025-02-11DeliveredTesla Q4 2014 earnings call, Feb…
2015-02-11Tesla delivers 55,000 cars in 20152015-12-31MissedTesla Q4 2014 earnings call…
2015-01-13Tesla making a few million cars a year within 10 years (by 2025)2025-12-31MissedAutomotive News World Congress…
2015-01-06Mars transport architecture presented around the end of 20152015-12-31Delivered · LateReddit AMA: I am Elon Musk…
2014-12-31'Solid metal snake' auto-charger for Tesla cars (2014)—CancelledElon Musk on Twitter, Dec 31 2014…
2014-11-05Tesla grows at least 50% in 2015 and again in 20162016-12-31DeliveredTesla Q3 2014 earnings call…
2014-10-2480-90% odds a Falcon 9 lands and reflies within a year (2014)2015-10-24Delivered · LateElon Musk at the MIT AeroAstro…
2014-07-31Tesla exits 2015 making 2,000 cars a week2015-12-31MissedTesla Q2 2014 earnings call…
2014-06-03Model X volume production in Q2 20152015-06-30Delivered · LateTesla Motors 2014 Annual…
2014-06-03Highway on-ramp to exit without touching any controls within a year (2014)2015-06-03Delivered · LateTesla 2014 shareholder meeting…
2014-05-16Half of all new cars fully autonomous in 7-8 years (by 2022)2027-07-15PendingWorld Energy Innovation Forum…
2014-03-05Falcon 9 Air Force (EELV) certification completed in 20142014-12-31Delivered · LateU.S. Senate Hearing on National…
2013-11-05Superchargers cover North America and Europe by end of 20142014-12-31PartialTesla Q3 2013 earnings call…
2013-11-05Model S China deliveries start Feb 20142014-03-31Delivered · LateTesla Q3 2013 earnings call…
2013-08-12LA-SF Hyperloop trip in 35 minutes (2013)2020-12-31MissedHyperloop Alpha white paper, Aug…
2013-07-10SpaceX unveils its new spacesuit by end of 20132013-12-31Delivered · Late@elonmusk, 2013-07-10
2013-06-20Battery swap stations across Tesla network (2013)2013-12-31CancelledTesla Battery Swap Full…
2013-04-02Tesla reaches at least 25% gross margin by the end of 20132013-12-31DeliveredInterview with Bloomberg (April…
2013-02-27Solar a plurality of US power within 20 years (2013)2033-02-27PendingTED 2013 — 'The mind behind…
2013-02-27Drive LA to New York on Superchargers by end of 20132013-12-31Delivered · LateTED 2013 — 'The mind behind…
2013-02-26Tesla cuts the repayment time on its DOE loan in half2018-02-26DeliveredARPA-E Energy Innovation Summit…
2013-02-20Tesla delivers more than 20,000 cars in 20132013-12-31DeliveredTesla Q4 2012 earnings call…
2013-02-20Tesla profitable in Q1 20132013-03-31DeliveredTesla Q4 2012 earnings call…
2012-07-25Model S at a 30,000/year run rate by end of 20132013-12-31MissedTesla Q2 2012 earnings call…
2012-07-15Hyperloop design published in about four weeks (2012)2012-08-12Delivered · Late@elonmusk, 2012-07-15
2012-05-09Model S European deliveries start early 20132013-03-31Delivered · LateTesla Q1 2012 earnings call…
2012-02-09Model S deliveries start no later than July 20122011-04-30Delivered · LateTesla (official channel) — 'Tesla…
2011-11-02First Supercharger between SF and LA by Jan–Feb 20122012-02-29Delivered · LateTesla Q3 2011 earnings call…
2011-08-03Model X prototype unveiled in mid-December 20112011-12-31Delivered · LateTesla Q2 2011 earnings call…
2011-04-22SpaceX puts first astronauts in space within ~3 years (2011)2011-12-31Delivered · LateThe Wall Street Journal (official…
2009-08-11Falcon 9 first launch later in 2009 from Cape Canaveral2009-12-31Delivered · LateCharlie Rose (August 11, 2009)…
2009-08-11Oil approaches $200 a barrel by 2010-20122012-12-31MissedCharlie Rose (August 11, 2009)…
2009-04-07First Dragon flies on Falcon 9 by end of 20092009-12-31Delivered · LateChurchill Club: An Evening with…
2009-04-07Dragon visits the space station for the first time in 20102010-12-31Delivered · LateChurchill Club: An Evening with…
2003-10-08Falcon 1 first launch from Vandenberg around March 20042004-03-31MissedStanford Entrepreneurial Thought…

Method. A claim counts only if Musk said it himself (post, video, interview, blog or earnings call) and it names or implies a date. "Said" is the date of that source; "deadline" is the date he gave, before any goalpost move. Verdicts follow the definitions on the methodology page; every count on this page is computed from the same file you can download.

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Cite this data

Elon Musk prediction data: twoweeks.lol — 346 predictions cited to Musk's own words, retrieved 2026-10-27. https://twoweeks.lol/data/
Questions or corrections: methodology · @howardyhuang
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